A Closer Look at the Big Picture (Part 3)

We continue responding to Jerome Gambit Gemeinde member Pete Banks' (blackburne) request for opening statistics (see his comment on "Another Closer Look"), based on the updated New Year's Database. 

For earlier numbers see "A Closer Look at the Big Picture (Part 1)" and "(Part 2)".

Currently the database contains 7, 074 games that begin 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7, with White scoring 44%.

Modern variations of the Jerome Gambit (which make up 47.4% of the Jerome Gambit Accepted games) are designed to either avoid the classical continuations (and refutations) by not playing 5.Nxe5 or they may represent new ways of conceptualizing the old gambit. 

They can be the choice of a competitor in a Jerome Gambit thematic tournament who simply decides no more sacrifices, or that of a higher-rated player giving "Jerome Gambit odds" who figures one sacrifice is enough to stir up things, let's see what happens now.

Since some lines can transpose into each other, the following statistics may be somewhat confounded, but here they are, nonetheless.

The most popular modern Jerome Gambit idea in the updated database is 5.d4, appearing in 1,318 games. It seems at least in part the offer of a central pawn to open lines, especially the c1-h6 diagonal to allow Bc1-g5 and Nf3-g5+.

Because of tranpositions, Black's best response, 5...exd4, shows up in the database in 1,896 games, with White scoring a difficult 37%. White does better than that against 5...Nxd4 (454 games, 45%) and worse than that against 5...Bxd4 (638 games, 27%).

After 5.0-0, seen in 768 games, White scores 36%. Again, 5.c3 fares better in 699 games with White scoring 47%; but worse in the 645 games in which White plays 5.d3 and scores 32%.

Perhaps White should explore 5.b4, which scores 63%, but in only 8 games.

There are still many variables in play in the modern Jerome Gambit besides move order, as 5.h3 has scored 75% (admittedly, in only 5 games) while 5.a3 has tallied 29% (in 28 games).

As expected, the theory of the modern Jerome Gambit is still evolving. From a practical, as opposed to a theoretical, perspective, the modern lines have not produced a line clearly more successful than the classical lines – at least at this introductory level of analysis.

Likely what is needed some time in the future is a Closer Closer Look at the Big Picture.

A Closer Look at the Big Picture (Part 2)

Yesterday – see "A Closer Look at the Big Picture (Part 1)" – responding to Jerome Gambit Gemeinde member Pete Banks' (blackburne) request for opening statistics (see his comment on "Another Closer Look") I checked the updated New Year's Database for answers. We continue today.

Currently the database contains 7, 298 games that begin 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+, with White scoring 44%.

If we look at the classical Jerome Gambit Accepted line 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5 Nxe5 6.Qh5+, which scores 53% in 2,182 games, there are several defenses to investigate.

Most popular (994 games) is blocking the White Queen's check with the Black Knight, 6...Ng6. White, however, scores 49% – a bit below the classical Jerome Gambit Accepted average, but not by much. Black might well be comfortable playing a defense that gives him a better than 1 in 2 chance of winning.

Next most popular (589 games) is moving the King into the fray with 6...Ke6, where White scores 52%. The same might be said about Black's comfort level in playing this defense, even with White's minute edge.

Again, Black has a decent alternative in 6...Kf8 (289 games) against which White scores only 45%. As with 5...Kf8, mentioned yesterday, this is a line which makes intuitive sense (not over-reacting and staying out of trouble) and which deserves to be seen more often.

Most puzzling is 6...g6, appearing in 286 games and against which White scores a whopping 72%. This is the move popularized by Blackburne in his 1885 miniature, and can lead to either the Blackburne Defense (7.Qxe5 d6) or the Whistler Defense (7.Qxe5 Qe7).

Against the former, in 90 games White scores 69%; while against the latter, in 36 games, White scores 57%. This is clearly a reflection of the tactical complications involved as well as the success of the more Jerome-experienced player:  in the Whistler Defense, after the capture of a lethally poisoned Rook (7.Qxe5 Qe7 8.Qxh8) in 28 games, White still scores 57%.

Tomorrow we will take a look at the modern Jerome Gambit lines, as reflected in the New Year's Database.

A Closer Look at the Big Picture (Part 1)

Responding to Jerome Gambit Gemeinde member Pete Banks' (blackburne) request for statistics (see his comment on "Another Closer Look") I consulted the updated New Year's Database for answers.

At the moment, the database contains 7, 298 games that begin 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+.

As expected, the vast majority of the games have the Accepted response of 4...Kxf7. For those games, White scores 44%. 

Only 192 games – 2.6%, – illustrate the Jerome Gambit Declined. For the record, White scores a surprisingly low 55% against 4...Kf8 and a more robust 72% against 4...Ke7.

Of the 7,298 Jerome Gambit games in the database, 3017 (42.5% of the Jerome Gambit Accepted games ) feature the classical 5.Nxe5+, with which White scores 53%.

A tentative conclusion, then, is that classical lines (i.e. those going 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+) score better than the average for all Jerome Gambit games in the database.

At first glance, this may be surprising, as computer evaluations give most of the "modern" variations higher ratings than the classical ones. However, what may be at work is is experience and familiarity – it may turn out that those who play the classical variations are more likely to be "old hands" in playing the lines, and this provides them with a competitive edge.

The question for Black at this point is: should he take White's Knight? The statistics suggest that Black should. The alternatives: 5...Kf8 is seen in 100 games, where White scores 49%; 5...Ke8 is seen in 49 games, where White scores 60%; 5...Ke6 is seen in 18 games, where White scores 61%; and 5...Ke7 is seen in 8 games, where White scores 63%.

Those defending against the Jerome Gambit might want to look at that 5...Kf8 line, both as a surprise weapon and as the one non-main-line choice that decreases White's winning percentage in the classical Jerome Gambit Accepted from 53% to 49%.

Most of the classical Jerome Gambit Accepted lines (95.7%), then, begin with 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5. The results from the database are indifferent as to whether White follows up with either 6.Qh5+ (2,182 games) or 6.d4 (699 games) as the first scores 53% for White and the second scores 52%.

An indication of how the New Year's Database can skew reality, however, is that after 6.d4, arguably the strongest reply for Black is 6...Qh4, yet in the 160 games where that move order appears, White scores 77%.

We will look at how White does against the various main line defenses to the classical Jerome Gambit, tomorrow.

Oh, By the Way...

With all of the attention that this blog has paid to the Blackburne Shilling Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nd4), I should have mentioned earlier an article by Paul Valle in the irrepressible Unorthodox Openings Newsletter Issue Number 3, June 2001.

It is fun to see in Chapter 6

Please excuse me for not having time... to look into 4.Bxf7+, although I doubt White has enough for his piece after 4…Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Ke6

Of course, not everyone has to agree with everything Paul writes...

Another Closer Look

The recently completed ChessWorld Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+) Thematic Tournament compiled some interesting statistics.

Thirteen players played two games (one with White, one with Black) against each opponent, for a total of 156 games.

White scored 46%. There were only 2 draws.

In only one game did Black decline the Bishop sacrifice.

As expected, modern Jerome Gambit (those without 5.Nxe5 after 4...Kxf7) variations predominated over classical (those with 5.Nxe5 after 4...Kxf7) lines, 120 games to 35 games, scoring 48% vs 37%.

The most successful modern line was 5.d4, scoring 69% in 8 games, followed by 5.0-0 (51% in 35 games) and 5.c3 (50% in 37 games). Unusual lines were unpopular: 5.h3 (100% in 1 game), 5.Qe2 (100% in 1 game), 5.a3 (0% in 1 game) and 5.Ng5+ (0% in 1 game).

(By contrast, the New Year's Database shows 5.d4 scoring 39%, with the most successful modern line being 5.c3 at 47%. As they say about statistics: your mileage may vary.)

Against classical lines continuing 4...Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+, Black's most popular lines were 6...Ke6 (11 games, White scored only 18%) and 6...Ng6 (10 games, White scored 50%). Black was most successful with 6...Kf8 (2 games, White scored 0%) and least successful with 6...g6 (3 games, White scored 67%).

When Black played 4...Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Kf8 (5 times) White scored only 20%. 

Substituting 6.d4 for 6.Qh5+ in 2 games, White scored 50%.

Dealing with Harassment

I have read that Grandmasters can look at a complicated position and almost immediately, without apparent analysis or evaluation, decide that a certain piece "must" go to a particular square. How different that is from my own experience...

perrypawnpusher - louarn
blitz, FICS, 2010

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5

Earlier this year we had played a couple of Semi-Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit games that I had won in 21 and 49 moves.

4.Bxf7+

4...Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Ng6

7.Qd5+ Ke8 8.Qxc5 d6 9.Qe3 N8e7

Planning for play on the f-file, especially targeting the square f5, which seems to be a magnet for "Jerome pawns".

10.0-0 Rf8

An interesting alternative is 10...d5, seen in perrypawnpusher - OverwiseMan, blitz, FICS, 2010 (1-0, 27).

11.f4

Or 11.d4, as Louis Morin (mrjoker) has played successfully in a couple of games, guest6567 - guest4702, ICC, 2004 (1-0, 26) and mrjoker - tomnoah, ICC, 2008.


11...Bd7

With an eye toward putting the Bishop on the a8-h1 diagonal. Both 11...Nc6, as in perrypawnpusher - taman, blitz, FICS, 2010 (1-0, 35), and 11...c6 as in perrypawnpusher - Kovrad, blitz, FICS, 2010 (1-0, 16) were also playable. 

 12.f5 Ne5 13.d4 Ng4

As always, retreating to c6 was better, but harassing the Queen is irresistible. A quick peek at the New Year's Database shows that I have over 45 games with a Queen at e3 being attacked by a Knight at g4!

You would think that by now I would have come up with the proper response for White.

14.Qg5

An interesting idea, but I had forgotten that I had tried something similar in one of my games against MRBarupal and my pawn at e4 (as well as the square itself) proved weak. It should not be surprising, therefore, that Rybka prefers 14.Qe2 (although it sees the game as even after my move).

14...Nf6 15.e5

Rushing forward into trouble. First: 15.Nc3

15...dxe5 16.dxe5 Ne4

There's that weak e4 square again.

17.Qxg7

The position may look dangerous for Black at first glance, but White has two pieces attacking five pieces (six, if you count the enemy King) and the pair of advanced "Jerome pawns" doesn't make up the difference.

 17...Nxf5 18.Qxh7 Qe7

Exchanging Queens takes the heat off of Black's King and preserves his advantage, although 18...Be6 was even stronger.

19.Qxe7+ Kxe7 20.Nc3 Nxc3 21.bxc3 Nh4

Hoping to exchange another piece, bringing the game closer to a won endgame, as White's pawns will be no match for Black's extra piece.

However, this was just the kind of slip that I was hoping for as it allows me to reverse my fortunes.

22.Ba3+ Ke6 23.Rxf8 Rxf8 24.Bxf8 Kxe5

Up the exchange and two pawns, White now has the winning chances.

25.Bg7+ Kd5 26.Rd1+ Kc6 27.Kf2 Nf5 28.Bd4 b5

I think this must have been a mouse-slip.

29.Bxa7 Kb7

Allowing the exchange of Bishops only hastens the end.

30.Bd4

See above. 

30...Ka6 31.Be5 Be6 32.Bxc7 Bxa2 33.Ra1 Kb7 34.Rxa2 Kxc7

35.g4 Nd6 36.Kf3 Nc4 37.g5 Ne5+ 38.Kf4 Ng6+ 39.Kf5 Ne7+ 40.Kf6 Nd5+ 41.Kf7 Nxc3 42.g6 Ne4 43.g7 Nd6+ 44.Kg6 Black resigned

To Increase Longevity, Stay Active

The plot of the following game seems straight-forward: I sacrificed a piece for a pawn in the opening; my opponent sacrificed a piece for two pawns in the middle game; I lost a pawn-down endgame...

In actuality, I had my chances.


perrypawnpusher - kholthaus
blitz, FICS, 2010

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 h6 5.0-0 Bc5

The Semi-Italian Four Knights Game.

6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Nxe5+ Nxe5 8.d4

8...Bxd4 9.Qxd4 Re8 10.f4 Nc6 11.Qd3 Kg8 12.Bd2 d6

I've reached this position 7 times before, with a record of 4-3. That's not bad for a position where White is a piece down, with only partial compensation (slight lead in development, better center pawns). Still, it is nowhere near as good as my overall score of 85% for Jerome Gambit and related games.

13.Rae1 Rf8

Clearly better than pwr's "optical illusion" 13...Nb4 that dropped a piece.

14.h3 a6 15.Nd5 Be6 16.Bc3

After the game Rybka preferred 16.c4 b5 17.b3 bxc4 18.bxc4 Rb8 and then 19.Bc3, although I am not sure what White gains by giving Black an open b-file for his Rook. 

16...Bxd5 17.exd5 Ne7 18.Bxf6 Rxf6 19.Qe4 Nf5 20.g4

A thoughtless move that allows 20...Ng3, winning the exchange and leaving Black a Rook up. Fortunately, my opponent had other ideas on how to defeat me, and missed this, too.

20...Nh4 21.f5 Rf8 22.Qe6+ Kh8 23.Kh2 Qe8

Putting an end to the excitment along the e-file, but it was better to slide a Rook over, instead.

24.Qxe8

I saw that Black's Knight was now at risk, but I should have played 24.Kg3, attacking it, right away. Then 24...Nxf5+ could have been answered by 25.Qxf5 with an even game. Also 24...Qd8 25.Kxh4 Qxa2 would have been answered with 26.f6 when White can probably still hold the draw, e.g. 26...Qxb2 27.Rb1 Qc3 28.fxg7+ Qxg7 29.Rxf8+ Rxf8 30.Rxb7. 

24...Raxe8 25.Kg3 Rxe1 26.Rxe1 Nxf5+ 27.gxf5 Rxf5

Black is up a pawn, although White has good drawing chances if he keeps his Rook active attacking the enemy pawns.

28.c4 Rf7 29.h4 Kg8 30.Re2

Passive.

Rybka likes 30.Re8+ Kh7 31.Ra8 Kg6 32.Ra7 b5 33.b3 bxc4 34.bxc4 Kf5 35.Rxa6 g5 with even chances.

30...b6

Black should have taken this opportunity to play 30...Kf8, keeping White's Rook from coming to e8 and from there slipping behind his pawns.

31.Kg4

Likewise, it was important to play 31.Re8+.

 31...a5 32.b3 Kf8

33.h5 Rf1 34.Kg3 Rg1+ 35.Kh4 Rg5 36.Rf2+ Ke7 37.a3

Missing White's last chance to draw.

With 37.a4, White could have reduced the exposure of his Queenside pawns to the base at b3, which he could have supported with his Rook at f3. The Rook would only leave its post to check the enemy King or threaten to win material. Then, White's only trump, his better-placed King, would help hold down the Kingside.

37...Re5 38.Kg4 Re3 39.Rf3

Capitulation.

39...Rxf3 40.Kxf3 Kf6 41.Kf4 g6 42.hxg6 Kxg6 43.Kg4 Kf6 44.b4 axb4 45.axb4 Ke5 White resigned