Jerome Gambit: "Too Good" (Part 1)

I have spent a lot of time uncovering refutations of the Jerome Gambit, and sometimes I get the incredibly foolish notion that I am "too good" for the opening. It only takes a game like the following one to readjust my perspective: too often, the Jerome Gambit is "too good" for me. (But, still, I persist).

Yes, Jackcchow, at Chess.com, worked hard to put me back in my place. Pretty impressive, given it was only the second time he had faced the Jerome Gambit.

After the game, I asked my old "friends" The Database (60,700 Jerome Gambit and Jerome-related games, representative of online club play) and Stockfish 10 to help make sense of it all. I also referred to Chess.com's post-game analysis, which made some interesting points.

perrypawnpusher - Jackcchow
Chess.com, 2019

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ 

4...Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Ng6 

I am usually happy to see this move, not so much because it is "bad" (it isn't) but because the game that White gets is comfortable. According to The Database, I have reached this position 132 times, scoring 80%.

After the game was over, I asked the Chess.com website for a report on the game, and was surprised when it awarded the move a "?!" and the label "inaccuracy" (preferring 6...Ke6, and the annoying or silicon defense, 7.f4 d6 8.fxe5 dxe5, a line that computers often love). That seemed a bit harsh to me.

7.Qd5+

I call this move "the nudge", and it is at least as old as Jerome - Brownson, Iowa, 1875 (1-0, 28). In blitz games, it can give Black pause, as he spends precious seconds wondering What is this move all about?

Is the move worth playing? That is a good question. On one hand, it chases Black's King to the 8th rank, where it can be further exposed to attack, and where it might impede the development of his Rook. Also, if Black chooses to castle-by-hand, he will later need to spend a move on ...Kf7. Still, White has spent 2 moves to capture the Bishop, so it balances out: 7.Qd5+ Kf8/e8 8.Qxc5 Kf7 would lead to the same position as the direct 7.Qxc5.

Examining The Database is enlightening, however. There are 711 games with "the nudge", with White scoring 68%. On the other hand, there are 1,285 games with 7.Qxc5, and White scores only  46%. Make of that what you will. YMMV. (I suspect that one factor may be that those who know about playing "the nudge" know more about the main line play of the Jerome Gambit, in general.)

I chuckled at the Chess.com post-game assessment, seeing 7.Qd5+ as the "best" move.

7...Kf8

In response to "the nudge," Black's King usually goes to f8 or e8. Which square is better? Stockfish 10 assesses them as nearly identical, varying in mere hundreths of a pawn. The Database has 213 examples of 7...Kf8, with White scoring 65%; it has 467 examples of 7...Ke8, with White scoring 68%.

8.Qxc5+ d6 9.Qe3 Nf6 

Black has a piece for two pawns, with a somewhat exposed King.

White, the gambiteer, is behind in development.

By the way, Chess.com's assessment is that 9...Nf6 is "good," but 9...d5 is "best". The Database has no examples of the latter move.

10.O-O Be6 

I can't let pass Chess.com's assessment of this move as an "inaccuracy". The Database has 6 games with the move, but White scores a rather ordinary 3 - 2 - 1. The knock on 10...Be6 is that it gives some boost to White's next move, with a threatened pawn fork. Curiously, until now, The Database had only 2 games with 11.f4 - a draw and a loss for White! 

11.f4 Bd7 12.f5 Ne5 13.d4 Nc6 

At this point, after the game the Chess.com analysis saw the position as equal, while Stockfish 10 gave White a slight edge. White's 2 "Jerome pawns" give him sufficient compensation for the sacrificed piece - but the position is going to get more complicated. 

[to be continued]