Jerome Gambit: Data Peek

The other day, I was looking over the post "Jerome Gambit Delayed: Who is Fooling Who?" which featured a win by lichess.org player and Jerome Gambit aficionado angelcamina.

Playing the line 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.d3 Nf6 6.Nxe5+ - which also could arise from the move order 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.d3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+ Kxf7 6.Nxe5+ - he won in 11 moves, even though he was effectively playing a delayed Jerome, as he first played d2-d3, and then d3-d4.

It was as if he were saying that the Jerome Gambit is so strong, it can even be played a move down.

Actually, it is more likely that angelcamina is an accomplished enough bullet (1 minute, no increment) player that any surprise opening with attacking chances can be an effective bullet weapon in his hands.

Curious, I dove into The Database (see "What is 'The Database'?", although it now contains almost 90,000 games) and came up with some interesting data.

The first example I found of the line in mention: 

akhnaten - fafner, 5 10 blitz, FICS, 1999

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.d3 Nf6 6.Nxe5+ 

Here we are.

6...Nxe5 7.Qh5+? Nxh5 White resigned.

Okay, that did not go so well. (That's blitz for you.)

I did note that angelcamina had a record of 22 - 22 - 2 (scoring 50%) with the line in question.

By comparison, looking at the classical Jerome Gambit line 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ etc., angelcamina's record is 490 - 308 - 10  (scoring 61%).

As expected, angelcamina did okay with the delayed line, but not as well as as he did with the classical line.

One move matters.

Looking at The Database as a whole, the delayed line scored 323 - 463 - 17 (41%).

Looking at The Database as a whole, the line 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ scored 12328 - 9131 - 808 (57%).

The players whose games are in The Database did not do too bad with the delayed line, but they did not do as well as they did with the classical Jerome Gambit line.

Again: one move matters, even in chaotic situations.

Of course, angelcamina out-performed those collective players in both lines.