One counter to surprise in chess is experience. Surprise unsettles confidence and calculation. Experience reassures, and provides a pathway forward.
The following Jerome Gambit game by Bill Wall is an example. By the way, Bill has over 1,000 games in The Database.
Wall, Bill - Kahve
internet, 2022
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+
4...Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.d4
6...Bb4+ 7.c3 Bxc3+ 8.Nxc3 Ng6 9.O-O
Stockfish 15 evaluates this position as even. White's 2 pawns, central control, lead in development and safer King balance Black's extra piece.
Bill Wall has reached this position 16 times previously - and he has won every time.9...d6
It is interesting that Stockfish 15 recommends 9...d5 10.Nxd5 Nf6 11.Nc3 Rf8 12.f4 Kg8 to keep the game even. In that line Black has sacrificed an additional pawn, but he has been able to castle-by-hand and achieve a small advantage in development.
10.f4 h6
I suspect that most club players would be happier here with the extra pawns. Defending against the onrush takes some thought - and can lead to weaknesses. Probably better was 10...N6e7.
11.e5
Using the pawns to break in the center and open lines. The alternative, 11.f5 N6e7 12.Bf4, would lead to a central clamp on the position.
11...dxe5
It is easy and natural to make this pawn exchange, but in this case it only helps the attacker. Again, 11...N8e7 would be for choice.
12.fxe5+ Ke6
American grandmaster Reuben Fine encouraged "The King is a strong piece - use it!" but that was in another time, in another situation.
Black's weakness on the light squares should have convinced his King to retreat. Nonetheless, after 12...Ke8 13.Qb3!? Qxd4+ 14.Kh1 Qd7 Black would be on the defensive and White's open lines would call to his pieces: 15.Nb5 N8e7 16.Be3 Rf8 17.Rfd1 Qc6 18.Rac1 Be6 19.Qa4. Black's defense finds no rest.
13.Qb3+ Kd7 14.Qd5+ Black resigned
It is checkmate next move.
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