Opening Reports on the New Year's Database

Using the New Year's Database of Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+), Blackburne Shilling Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nd4 4.Bxf7+), and Semi-Italian Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0/4.Nc3/4.d3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+) games, I enlisted ChessBase8 to run a series of Opening Reports. The results were enlightening.

Starting with 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+, the Report found 6,507 games. White "scored badly" at 44%, while Black scored 56%.

As for Black's replies, 4...Kxf7 was played in 6,124 games, when Black "scored well" with 56%, as compared to scoring "averagely" (46%) with 4...Kf8 and "badly" with 4...Ke7 (30%).

These statistics, like all statistics, should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, it is clear at this point that Black gains nothing (and White loses nothing) by avoiding the capture of the Bishop. Too, if the Opening Report considers 46% to be "average", White's 44% is not far off the mark.

Finally, the Critical Line is given as 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5 Nxe5 6.d4 Bxd4 7.Qxd4 Qe7 where White scores 33%. This is interesting, but Readers know that 6...Qh4+ is the actual critical line, even if it has scored poorly in the database.

I re-ran the Opening Report after 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 and was not surprised to find that while 5.Nxe5+ was played in 2,677 games and scored "averagely" with 53%, all other White choices scored "below average" (5.c3 47%;), "badly" (5.b3 43%; 5.d4 40%; 5.0-0 36%;) or "miserably" (5.Qe2 33%; 5.d3 32%; 5.a3 31%; 5.h4 31%; 5.Nc3 27%; 5.c4 25%; 5.Ng5 23%; 5.g3 0%; 5.Ng1 0%) – with the exception of 5.b4, transposing to the Jerome Evans Gambit, where White scored "well" at 67% (in 6 games).

I re-ran the Opening Report on 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+, and noticed that White scored 74% against 5...Ke8; 67% against 5...Ke7; 53% against 5...Nxe5; 45% against 5...Kf8; and 38% against 5...Ke6.

Clearly that last move needs more analysis on behalf of White. 

In general, it still looks like White does best to stick with the Jerome Gambit "book" and that Black takes more risks when he knowingly or unknowingly plays away from "book".

graphic by Jeff Bucchino, the Wizard of Draws