Sunday, August 12, 2012

The Jerome Gambit: Helping or Hurting?

Looking at The Database today, I noticed that I had played 250 rated games with the Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+).

My score was 83%, which I thought was pretty good.

Then I wondered: maybe I scored well because I simply played my refuted opening against weaker players...

So, I looked at my average rating for those games, and the average rating of my opponents, and it was true: my opponents were, generally, weaker.

By about 65 rating points.

That would mean that instead of playing equally-rated opponents and expecting to score 50%, I was playing slightly weaker opponents, and was expected to score about 60%.

Ooops!

With the Jerome Gambit I was still scoring 23% higher than expected.

I think I will keep playing the opening.

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