Thursday, August 16, 2012

Caveat

Statistics should always be approached with a decent amount of caution and skepticism, and that is especially true with the numbers given in my last few posts (see "The Jerome Gambit: Helping or Hurting?", "Furthermore", "And Then" and "Still").

For those who have gotten a chuckle out of my looks into The Database to see how much help or hindrance the Jerome Gambit proper (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+), the Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+), the Semi-Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Nf6 5.Nc3 Bc5 6.Bxf7+) and the Semi-Italian Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Bc5 5.Bxf7+) appeared to be having on the actual (versus expected) outcomes of my games, I further decided to see the effect of the Blackburne Shilling Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nd4 4.Bxf7+). 

I found 37 of my games in The Database.

Since these largely involved situations where I was offering "Jerome Gambit odds," the average rating of my opponents was about 32 points below mine, meaning that my expected score in the games was about 54%.

However, I scored 91%, again favorably answering the question: Helping or Hurting?


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