Caveat

Statistics should always be approached with a decent amount of caution and skepticism, and that is especially true with the numbers given in my last few posts (see "The Jerome Gambit: Helping or Hurting?", "Furthermore", "And Then" and "Still").

For those who have gotten a chuckle out of my looks into The Database to see how much help or hindrance the Jerome Gambit proper (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+), the Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+), the Semi-Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Nf6 5.Nc3 Bc5 6.Bxf7+) and the Semi-Italian Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Bc5 5.Bxf7+) appeared to be having on the actual (versus expected) outcomes of my games, I further decided to see the effect of the Blackburne Shilling Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nd4 4.Bxf7+). 

I found 37 of my games in The Database.

Since these largely involved situations where I was offering "Jerome Gambit odds," the average rating of my opponents was about 32 points below mine, meaning that my expected score in the games was about 54%.

However, I scored 91%, again favorably answering the question: Helping or Hurting?

Still

Continuing my look into The Database (see "The Jerome Gambit: Helping or Hurting?", "Furthermore" and "And Then"), where I had examined how much help or hindrance the Jerome Gambit proper (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+), the Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+), and the Semi-Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Nf6 5.Nc3 Bc5 6.Bxf7+).were on the actual (versus expected) outcomes of my games, I decided to see the effect of the Semi-Italian Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Bc5 5.Bxf7+). 

I found 46 of my games.

Again, as expected in situations where I was offering "Jerome Gambit odds," the average rating of my opponents was about 36 points below mine, meaning that my expected score in the games was about 55%.

I scored 91%.

That is enough for me to continue to play the Jerome.

And Then

Following the two previous posts (see "The Jerome Gambit: Helping or Hurting?" and "Furthermore"), where I had consulted The Database to see how much help or hindrance the Jerome Gambit proper (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+) and the Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+), were on the actual (versus expected) outcomes of my games, I decided to see the effect of the Semi-Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Nf6 5.Nc3 Bc5 6.Bxf7+).

I found 51 games.

As expected in situations where I was offering "Jerome Gambit odds," the average rating of my opponents was about 42 points below mine, meaning that my expected score in the games was about 56%.

I actually scored 78%.

The Semi-Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit seemed to be a help to my game.

Furthermore

After yesterday's post (see "The Jerome Gambit: Helping or Hurting?"), I thought it might be useful to consult The Database further and see how much help or hindrance the Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+), the Semi-Italian Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Bc5 5.Bxf7+) and the Semi-Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 h6 4.0-0 Nf6 5.Nc3 Bc5 6.Bxf7+) were on my expected outcomes.

I discovered 46 Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit games that I had played. 

Once again, as with the Jerome Gambit proper, the average rating of my opponents was less than my average rating (not surprising, given that I like to give "Jerome Gambit odds"), enough that I would be expected to score 60% in the games.

I actually scored 73%, enough to be mildly annoyed by 3...Nf6 instead of 3...Bc5, but, again, not enough to give up the Jerome.

The Jerome Gambit: Helping or Hurting?

Looking at The Database today, I noticed that I had played 250 rated games with the Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+).

My score was 83%, which I thought was pretty good.

Then I wondered: maybe I scored well because I simply played my refuted opening against weaker players...

So, I looked at my average rating for those games, and the average rating of my opponents, and it was true: my opponents were, generally, weaker.

By about 65 rating points.

That would mean that instead of playing equally-rated opponents and expecting to score 50%, I was playing slightly weaker opponents, and was expected to score about 60%.

Ooops!

With the Jerome Gambit I was still scoring 23% higher than expected.

I think I will keep playing the opening.

Historical Mystery

This week's ChessCafe.com contains International Master Gary Lane's latest "Opening Lanes" column, always a good read for chess players interested in unusual opening choices. In addition, the end of the column presents Lane's readers with a bit of a historical Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+) mystery. Check it out!

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