Jerome Gambit Declined: Puzzled

If you read about the Jerome Gambit Declined (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 / e7) in the recent "Jerome Gambit for Dummies 2.0 (Part 3)" you may have puzzled a bit at

White can part with his Bishop, instead, with 5.Bxg8, scoring 63% against 4...Kf8 and 91% against 4...Ke7. 

Does it really matter where the enemy King goes, once he decides not to capture the piece? Why such a difference in scoring  percentage for White?

The following game provides an answer. Again, risks abound in blitz games.

ImantsP - S-D-R

5 5 blitz, lichess.org, 2022

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Ke7 

The Jerome Gambit Declined. Black is feeling either suspicious or contrarian.

5.Bxg8 Rxg8

The proper recapture is with the Queen, but that may not be immediately apparent in a blitz game. I mean, why develop Her Majesty to an unpromising square and keep the Rook locked in?

In all fairness, 5...Qxg8 was found in only 3 of the previous 11 games with this line. Ouch.

6.d4 

Oh. But things can get worse. Only in the early drewbear - AAlekhine, Jerome Gambit thematic tournament, ChessWorld.net, 2007 (1-0, 33) did the defender find the best, but insufficient response, 6...h6.

6...exd4 7.Bg5+ Kf7 8.Bxd8 Black resigned

Happy Easter!

 

Vishy Anand's Jerome-ish Game

Here is the latest game contribution by Yury V. Bukayev. He notes

Here is ex-WCC top GM Viswanathan Anand's Jerome-ish game of 2020 against top GM Wesley So:
https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1990228 . This game was played in January, 12 (before several popular videos on Jerome gambit by top GM Hikaru Nakamura & IM Levy Rozman, by GM Aman Hambleton, by other creators were published). It maybe, Mr. Anand reads this blog, although this probability is less, in my estimation, than the probability of Mr. Carlsen's reading of this blog!

So, Wesley - Anand, Viswanathan

Tata Steel Masters, Wijk aan Zee, 2020

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.c3 Nf6 5.d3 d6 

The closed Giuoco Piano, with some similarities to the Jerome Gambit.

6.Nbd2 O-O 7.h3 a6 8.Bb3 Be6 9.Bc2 d5 

10.Ng5 dxe4 

A later game, So, Wesley - Carlsen, Magnus, Magnus Carlsen Invitational (rapid) (0-1, 25), saw 10...Bc8.

11.Nxe6 fxe6 12.dxe4 Bxf2+ 

Livening things up! Black gets a lot of play, and against a lesser opponent he might have gotten a full point.

13.Kxf2 Ng4+ 14.Kg1 Ne3 15.Qe2 Nxc2 16.Rb1 

16...N6d4 17.cxd4 Qxd4+ 18.Kh2 Rf2 19.Qg4 Ne3 20.Qxe6+ Kh8 21.Rg1 Qd3 22.Qxe5 

22...Raf8

Commentators have suggested that Black would have had good drawing chances after 22...Nxg2, but Anand probably thought he could get more, as his pieces are much more active that his opponent's.

23.Qg3 Qe2

Komodo 12.1.1 suggests 23...R8f6 24.b4 Rg6, to keep things going.

24.b4 Rxg2+ 25.Rxg2 Nxg2 26.Qg4 Black resigned

Exchanging Queens - 26...Qxg4 or 26...Nf4+ 27.Qxe2 Nxe2 - would not help. Dodging with 26...Qf2 or 26...Qb5 would drop a piece to 27.Qxg2. Both 26...Qe3 and 26...Qd3 would invite the enemy Rook into play with 27.Rb3.

This time it is not true that audentis Fortuna iuvat.

Jerome Gambit: Modern 5.c3, Another Route?

 

We have been looking at the "modern" Jerome Gambit variation, 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.c3.

If a player wanted to explore this line, it would be equally possible to pursue this position through regular Giuoco Piano lines: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.c3 Nf6 and now 5.Bxf7+ Kxf7.

The value of this approach is that Black has played ...Nf6 - in the Jerome Gambit line, it would be 5...Nf6.

Stockfish 14.1 evaluates 5...Nf6 as being about 2 1/2 pawns worse than the best response 5...d5. Komodo 12.1.1 is more moderate, but still sees 5...d5 as about 1/2 pawn better than 5...Nf6.

This is borne out by The Database, where there are 1,466 games with both Giuoco Piano line and Jerome Gambit line ending up with ...Nf6. White scores 44%. This compares with 76 games in The Database, where White scores only 24% against ...d5.

Jerome Gambit: More About The Modern 5.c3

 

To learn more about the "modern" Jerome Gambit line, 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.c3, 

I turned, once again, to The Database.

For example, were stronger players getting involved?

I did a search, looking for games with the line where both players were rated 2200 or above. I found only 6 games, all of them "0-1" despite little difference between the average ratings (White 2352, Black 2378).

Hoping to cast a wider net, I did a search with the line, where one of the players was rated 2200 or above. I found 19 games, with White scoring 2 - 17, not very encouraging. Mind you, much of this could be due to the large difference between the average rating of each side: the average rating of  White was 1942, while the average rating of Black was 2368. (For the record, White's performance rating was 2005, which means that 2 wins out of 19 games was better than expected, due to the difference in ratings.) 

Giving it one more try, I searched for examples of the line where both players were rated 2000 or above. I found 12 games, with White averaging 2250, and Black averaging 2253, about as equal as possible. White scored 3 - 9.

Changing course, I decided to answer the question Who is playing this line?

I discovered that thmav, playing at the online site FICS, had 157 games with the line in The Database. He scored a decent 51%.

He also seemed to be having fun. Here are some examples of short wins.

thmavz - Richad, 3 0 blitz FICS, 2012: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.c3 d6 6.d4 Bb6 7.dxe5 Nxe5 8.Nxe5+ dxe5 9.Qxd8 Black resigned

thmavz  - mcardis, 3 0 blitz FICS, 2011: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.c3 Nf6 6.d4 exd4 7.cxd4 Bb6 8.e5 Nd5 9.Qb3 Rf8 10.Qxd5+ Ke8 11.Ng5 h6 12.Nh7 Black resigned

thmavz - AlekseySaushkin, 3 0 blitz FICS, 2015: 1.e4 e5 2.Bc4 Nc6 3.Bxf7+ Kxf7 4.Nf3 Bc5 5.c3 d6 6.d4 Bb6 7.0–0 Nf6 8.Qb3+ Be6 9.Ng5+ Kg6 10.Qxe6 Qe7 11.Qf5+ Kh6 12.Nf7 checkmate

thmavz - ggupta, blitz game FICS, 2015: 1.e4 e5 2.Bc4 Bc5 3.Bxf7+ Kxf7 4.Nf3 Nc6 5.c3 Nf6 6.d4 exd4 7.cxd4 Bb4+ 8.Nc3 Nxe4 9.0–0 Nxc3 10.bxc3 Bxc3 11.Qb3+ Kf8 12.Qxc3 Black resigned

thmavz - itchytendai, 3 0 blitz game FICS, 2015: 1.e4 e5 2.Bc4 Nc6 3.Bxf7+ Kxf7 4.Nf3 Bc5 5.c3 Qf6 6.d4 Bd6 7.Qb3+ Ke7 8.Bg5 Qxg5 9.Nxg5 exd4 10.Qf7+ Kd8 11.Qxg7 Be5 12.Qf8 checkmate

thmavz - afeemomo, 3 0 blitz game FICS, 2011: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.c3 Nf6 6.d4 exd4 7.cxd4 Bb4+ 8.Nc3 Nxe4 9.0–0 Nxc3 10.bxc3 Bd6 11.Re1 Re8 12.Ng5+ Kg8 13.Qb3+ Kh8 14.Bf4 Bxf4 15.Nf7+ Kg8 16.Nxd8+  Black resigned 

thmavz - darnakas, 3 0 blitz FICS, 2016: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.c3 Nf6 6.d4 exd4 7.Bg5 dxc3 8.Nxc3 Bxf2+ 9.Kxf2 Nxe4+ 10.Nxe4 Rf8 11.Qd5+ Kg6 12.Bxd8 Nxd8 13.Rhf1 d6 14.Kg1 Be6 15.Nh4+ Kh6 16.Qg5 checkmate

Jerome Gambit: A Closer Look At A "Modern" Line

 

What prompted a closer look at the "modern" Jerome Gambit line with 5.c3 was an email from chessfriend Dan Middlemiss

I am attaching another 57 Jerome Gambit games. I noticed that there is a bunch of games with 5.c3. Stockfish does not care for this move, but the Lichess database gives it a 48% success rate for white – exactly the same as for 5.Nxe5, although the knight capture is played much more often.

What does your Database say about this line, and have you given it much analysis in earlier columns? It seems to be a waiting move, primarily for 5....d6 by black, which Stockfish also thinks less of than other replies by black.

Any thoughts?

It was easy to respond 

I have been looking through my Database, and the blog, to get some ideas on 5.c3.  I have 1,963 games in The Database - a bit surprising that many - with White scoring 45% [not quite as good as the lichess.org data - Rick]. It was fun going back in time to see what I had written on the line. There are occasional games showing up, with and without notes, on the blog. I have to go back 9 years to find "A Look at the 'Modern' Jerome Gambit: 5.c3" and further to "Ask Houdini" to see even a light assessment of the line. Even so, the focus was mostly on differentiating "classical" Jerome Gambit lines (i.e. 5.Nxe5+) from "modern" Jerome Gambit lines (i.e. not-5.Nxe5+).

Interestingly enough, looking at Giuoco Piano offshoot, 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.c3 Nf6 5.Bxf7+ Kxf7, I have 1,466 games in The Database, with White scoring 44%. (I am sure that there is overlap.) Slightly odd in comparison with the 4.Bxf7+ / 5.c3 line, because I would have expected Black to do better when he had the option of 5...d5 (similar to the idea in the Ponziani).

Anyhow, 5.c3 is due for review, on its own, not just because it is "modern".  Thanks for the idea.

 So - off we go!

And, as you can see, I am willing to explore suggestions from Readers.

Jerome Gambit: "Modern 5.c3"

Dan Middlemiss has contributed his latest collection of Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+) games to The Database, including a selection of games featuring the "modern" 5.c3. 

My first look at this idea in a while - "A Look at the 'Modern' Jerome Gambit: 5.c3" is 9 years old - starts with a game that takes a while before morphing into what we will be looking at.

vettow_cgn - Kderro

1 0 bulet, lichess.org, 2022

1.e4 e5 2.Bc4 

The Bishop's Opening.

2...Nc6 3.Bxf7+ Kxf7 4.Nf3 Bc5 

Transposing to the Jerome Gambit.

5.c3 

White decides not to sacrifice the second piece with 5.Nxe5+, the "classical" line of play.

5...Nf6 6.d3 

Deciding not to hit the center with 6.d4.

6...d6 7.Qb3+ Be6 

In a 1-minute game, a quick response to a threat risks not being the best move. Glancing at The Database, I see this kind of thing happening in 375 games.

8.Ng5+ Kg6 9.Qxe6 Re8 

Hoping to eject the enemy Queen. 9...Qd7 would have better met the needs of the position, as we shall see.

10.Qf5+ Kh6 11.Nf7 checkmate