Monday, February 25, 2013

No Escape





If a defender decided not to take on Philidor1792 in his favorite Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit variation, that would make a lot of sense - but it would not be a guarantee of success. Sometimes, there is no escape.


Philidor1792 - guest2723
Internet online game, 2013

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+ 




5...Kxf7 6.Nxe5+ Nxe5 7.d4 Bxd4




Passing on the 7...Bd6 variation which he played earlier


8.Qxd4 Qe7 9.Bg5 Nc6 10.Qd3 d6 11.0-0-0 Be6 




White has a pawn for his sacrificed piece, but his Queenside castling adds a dynamism to the game.


12.f4 h6 13.Bh4 Bg4 14.Rde1 Rad8




Black plans to forestall e4-e5, but trouble arrives from another direction.


15.Nd5 Qe6 16.Bxf6 gxf6 17.h3 Bh5 18.g4 Bxg4 19.hxg4 Qxg4




Under pressure, Black returns a piece for a couple of pawns, but his position contains danger for his King.


20.Rhg1 Qe6 21.e5 dxe5 22.Qg6+ Kf8 23.Qg7+ Black resigned






Saturday, February 23, 2013

Split Decision


Today, Philidor1792, two pieces down, could have pushed for a tiny but more, but settles for a draw in "his" variation.

Philidor1792 - NN
2013

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+ 




Again, the Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit.


5...Kxf7 6.Nxe5+ Nxe5 7.d4 Bd6 8.f4 




And, again, the pawns vs pieces variation.


8...Nc4 9.Qd3 


This is a TN and an improvement upon 9.e5 of Philidor1792 - Guest1895, internet online game, 2013 (1-0, 28).


9...Nb6 10.e5 Bb4 11.0-0 Bxc3 12.bxc3 Nfd5




13.c4 Ne7 14.f5 d5 15.e6+ Kg8 16.f6 Bxe6 17.fxg7 Kxg7 18.Bg5 Qd6 


The "Jerome pawns" have advanced and torn a hole in Black's Kingside position. Despite the fact that Black is two pieces up, he should have looked at 18...Qe8, when White can force a draw as in today's game.


19.Bxe7 


White is willing to split the point today. If he wanted to continue with complications, he could try Rybka 3's recommendation : 19.Bf6+ Kg8 20.c5 Qd7 21.cxb6 Ng6 22.bxc7 Qxc7 23.Rae1 (White's Bishop is, for the moment, more useful living at f6 then being exhanged at h8) Bf7 24.Qd2 Qd6 25.Qh6 Qf8 26.Qh3 Re8 27.Qd7 Rxe1 28.Rxe1 h6 29.Bxh8 Kxh8 30.Qxb7 when White has an edge.


19...Qxe7 20.Qg3+ Kh6 21.Qe3+ Kg7 22.Qg3+ Kh6 23.Qe3+ Drawn


graphic by Jeff Bucchino, The King of Draws

Thursday, February 21, 2013

His Three Pieces


Here we have Philidor1792 demonstrating another example of the opening presented in the previous post. How can White possibly win?

It has been said before: the Jerome Gambit may not be anything to try against a computer, but it continues to provide interesting play against people. 


Philidor1792 - guest2723

Internet online game, 2013

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bc5 5.Bxf7+ Kxf7 6.Nxe5+ Nxe5 7.d4 Bd6 8.f4 Neg4 





Rare, but recently seen in Skirving - PAMpamPAM, standard, FICS, 2012 (0-1, 32)

9.e5 Bb4 10.O-O Bxc3 11.bxc3 d5








Deviating from Philidor1792 - Computer, 2011 (0-1, 43)


12.f5 Nxe5


Black logically returns a piece, missing the fact that his Knight on f6 cannot move away, so it will actually cost him two. He would do better with 12...Re8 13.exf6 Nxf6


13.dxe5 Ne4 14.Qh5+ Kf8 15.f6 g6 16.Qh6+ Ke8




Black's lack of development proves his undoing. Of course, the "Jerome pawns" contribute.


17.Qg7 Rf8 18.Bh6 Rf7 19.Qg8+ Kd7 20.e6+ Kxe6 21.Qxd8 Black resigned


graphic by Jeff Bucchino, The Wizard of Draws

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

My Three Pawns


Sometimes it seems that if the Jerome Gambit didn't look so bad, it wouldn't turn out so good...

Philidor1792 - guest1895

Internet online game, 2013

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Nc3 Nf6 5.Bxf7+ 




The Italian Four Knights Jerome Gambit.


5...Kxf7 6.Nxe5+ Nxe5 7.d4 Bd6 8.f4 




This is a line that Philidor1792 has explored a number of times (see the series started with "Where Do Ideas Come From? Part 1").


The central conflict between three White pawns and three Black pieces seems overwhelmingly in the defender's favor, especially since he has two extra pieces. However, veteran Jerome Gambit players know that appearances are often deceiving, and against human players (especially those who become overconfident, and, thus, inattentive) the play can often become favorable for the attacker.


8...Nc4


This move seems to have first been played in a couple of games against Rijndael/Ryndael at FICS (see "New Player, Old Line" and "Updated").


9.e5 Bb4 10.0-0 Bxc3 11.bxc3 Ne4 




Now we have another curious pieces vs pawns matchup.


12.d5 Nxc3 13.Qd3 Nb6 14.Qxc3 Nxd5 15.Qb3 




Black's advantage seems to have shrunk (15.Qe4 and 15.Qf5+ were interesting alternatives) and his King looks vulnerable. Can White scare up threats quickly enough?


15...c6 16.Qh3 d6 17.Qh5+ g6 18.Qh6 Qf8 19.Qh4 Bf5 20.Bb2 Rg8 



21.Qxh7+

It was a bit more accurate to precede this with 21.c4 Nc7 22.exd6 Qxd6, but Black's game falls apart any way.


21...Ke8 22.exd6 Kd8 23.c4 Bd3 24.cxd5 Bxf1 25.Qc7+ Ke8 26.Re1+ Be2 27.Rxe2+ Qe7 28.Qxe7 checkmate





graphic by Jeff Bucchino, The Wizard of Draws

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Opening Report: Take a breath...

So far, the recent Opening Report on the Jerome Gambit (see 1, 2 and 3), based on the 27,000+ games contained in TheDatabase, has had few surprises. I'd like to point out a couple of interesting findings, however, before pursuing a deeper look.

The Opening Report highlights a number of games from an interesting 2008 30-game human vs computers match (starting with "Jerome Gambit: Drilling Down (1)"

This post starts an extended series (which may be interrupted from time-to-time for news, games or analysis) wherein the intrepid "RevvedUp" (a good chess player) and his trusted companions Hiarcs 8, Shredder 8, Yace Paderborn, Crafty 19.19 and Fritz 8 explore the Jerome Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+) by taking turns playing the White and Black pieces. 

The human moves first, and takes notice of the defense the computer plays. In the next game, where he moves second, the human plays that defense against a new computer – and sees how it attacks. In the third game, the human plays the recent attack against his new computer foe. Collectively, the players drill deeper and deeper into the Jerome Gambit.


It also shows that Jerome Gambit players sometimes prefer chaos to clarity, as recommended responses to the Jerome Gambit Declined (again, based on the examples in TheDatabase) - 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 or 4...Ke7 - are given as 5.Nc3 and 5.Nxe5, respectively.

The straight-forward Bishop retreat 5.Bb3 (as well as its cousin, 5.Bd5) is stronger.

We will use the ChessBase Opening Report to dig deeper into the Jerome Gambit (through the eyes of TheDatabase), but first there are a few new interesting games from Philidor1792 to look at.

Friday, February 15, 2013

Opening Report (Part 3)



I decided to have ChessBase8 give me an Opening Report on the Jerome Gambit, based on The Database. I got a whole lot of information, and I was only dealing with the first few moves...

Opening report

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+

9062 games in 'TheDatabase'


b) 4...Kf8

207 games, 2000-2012, 
Black scores averagely (44%).
Elo-Ø: 1353, 193 games. Performance = Elo 1304
played by: blackburne, 1778, 2/2; Talwhu, 1722, 1/1; PatOrMat, 1685, 1/1; Rolmx, 1683, 0/1; vilinar, 1666, 1/1

You should play: 5.Nc3

AAlekhine (1586) - blackburne (1795)
thematic ChessWorld.net, 2007
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 5.Nc3 d6 6.d3 Kxf7 7.Ng5+ Kf8 8.Qf3+ Qf6 9.Qxf6+ Nxf6 10.0-0 Nd4 11.Be3 Nxc2 12.Rad1 Bxe3 13.Nf3 Bg4 14.h3 Bxf3 15.gxf3 Bf4 16.a3 Nd4 17.Kg2 Ke7 18.Rg1 g5 19.Kf1 Nxf3 20.Rg2 Rhg8 21.Nd5+ Nxd5 22.exd5 h5 23.h4 Nxh4 24.Rg1 g4 25.d4 Nf3 26.Rg2 h4 27.Ke2 Nxd4+ 28.Kd3 h3 29.Rgg1 h2 30.Rh1 g3 31.fxg3 Rxg3+ 32.Kc4 Rb3 33.Rxd4 exd4 34.Kxb3 d3 35.Kc3 d2 36.Kc2 Kf6 37.Kd1 Re8 38.b4 Re1+ 39.Rxe1 dxe1Q+ 40.Kxe1 h1Q+ 41.Kf2 Qe4 42.a4 Qe3+ 43.Kg2 Ke5 44.b5 Ke4 45.a5 Qf3+ 46.Kg1 Qe2 47.b6 Kxd5 48.bxa7 Be3+ 49.Kh1 Bxa7 50.a6 b6 51.Kg1 Ke4 52.Kh1 Kf3 53.Kg1 Qg2# 0-1


Plejade - erch
ChessWorld.net, 2003
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 5.Nc3 Kxf7 6.Nd5 Nge7 7.Nxe7 Qxe7 8.d3 Rf8 9.Be3 Kg8 10.Bxc5 Qxc5 11.Qd2 Nb4 12.c3 Nc6 13.d4 exd4 14.Nxd4 Nxd4 15.0-0 Nc6 16.Rfd1 Ne5 17.Qd5+ Qxd5 18.exd5 Nc4 19.g3 Nxb2 20.Rd4 b5 21.d6 cxd6 22.Rxd6 Rf6 23.Rxf6 Nd3 24.Rd1 gxf6 25.Rxd3 Kf8 26.Rd6 Kf7 27.f4 a5 28.Rb6 Ba6 29.h4 d5 30.g4 b4 31.cxb4 d4 32.b5 d3 33.bxa6 Rd8 34.Rb1 Ke6 35.f5+ Ke5 36.Kf1 Kd4 37.Ke1 Ke3 38.Kd1 Kd4 39.Kd2 Rc8 40.Rb5 Rc2+ 41.Kd1 Rxa2 42.a7 Ra1+ 43.Kd2 Ra2+ 44.Kd1 Kc3 45.Rc5+ Kd4 46.Rc6 Ke3 47.a8Q Rd2+ 48.Ke1 Rg2 49.Rc3 Rg1# 0-1

Alternative: 5.Bxg8

drewbear (1718) - BrainFreeze (1685)
thematic ChessWorld.net, 2007
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 5.Bxg8 Rxg8 6.d3 d5 7.Ng5 dxe4 8.Nxh7+ Ke8 9.Qh5+ Ke710.Bg5+ Kd6 11.Bxd8 Nxd8 12.Qg6+ Kd5 13.Nf6+ 1-0


SIRMO (1798) - AAlekhine (1625)
thematic ChessWorld.net, 2007
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 5.Bxg8 Rxg8 6.c3 Qf6 7.d3 d6 8.a4 Ke8 9.Bg5 Qg6 10.h4 h6 11.h5 Qe6 12.Bd2 Bd7 13.b4 Bxf2+ 14.Kxf2 Rf8 15.Rh3 Ke7 16.Be3 Rae8 17.b5 Na5 18.Nbd2 Kd8 19.Ke2 Kc8 20.c4 g5 21.Nh2 Qf6 22.Rf3 Qe6 23.Qf1 g4 24.Rxf8 g3 25.Rxe8+ Bxe8 26.Nhf3 Bxh5 27.Qh1 Qf7 28.Qh3+ Kb8 29.Qxg3 b6 30.Bxh6 Nb7 31.Qg7 Qxg7 32.Bxg7 Nc5 33.a5 Ne6 34.Bf6 Nf4+ 35.Kf1 Nxd3 36.axb6 cxb6 37.Be7 Kc8 38.Bxd6 Kd7 39.Nxe5+ Nxe5 40.Bxe5 Ke6 41.Bc7 Kd7 42.Rxa7 Kc8 43.Bxb6 Kb8 44.c5 Bd1 45.Nc4 Bb3 46.Nd6 Bc2 47.Rd7 1-0


Superpippo (1597) - TajniDobrovoljci (1607)
FICS rated blitz game, 2001
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 5.Bxg8 Kxg8 6.0-0 d6 7.c3 Bg4 8.d4 exd4 9.Qb3+ Kf8 10.Nxd4 Bxd4 11.cxd4 b6 12.Be3 Qf6 13.Nd2 Nxd4 14.Bxd4 Qxd4 15.Nf3 Bxf3 16.Qxf3+ Ke7 17.Rad1 Qf6 18.e5 Qxf3 19.exd6+ cxd6 20.Rfe1+ Kf7 21.gxf3 Rhd8 22.Re4 d5 23.Rh4 h6 24.Kg2 Rd7 25.f4 Rad8 26.Kf3 Re7 27.Rh5 d4 28.Re5 d3 29.Ke3 d2 30.Rxd2 Rxd2 31.Kxd2 Rxe5 32.fxe5 g5 33.Ke3 Ke6 34.Ke4 h5 35.f4 gxf4 36.Kxf4 a5 37.a4 Kd5 38.Kf5 Kc4 39.e6 Kb3 40.e7 Kxa4 41.e8Q+ Kb3 42.Qe2 Kb4 43.Qc2 b5 44.Qc3+ Ka4 45.Qa3# 1-0

drewbear (1718) - karmmark (1387)
thematic ChessWorld.net, 11.2007
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 5.Bxg8 1-0


LSS (1875) - KaptKoca (1614)
FICS server game, rated blitz match, 2000
1.e4 e5 2.Bc4 Nc6 3.Nf3 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 5.Bxg8 Rxg8 6.0-0 d6 7.d3 h6 8.Nc3 Bg4 9.h3 Bh5 10.Kh1 Ke8 11.g4 Bf7 12.Nh2 Rf8 13.f4 exf4 14.Rxf4 Ne5 15.Nd5 Bxd5 16.Rxf8+ Kxf8 17.exd5 Qh4 18.Qf1+ Kg8 19.Qg2 Rf8 20.b4 Bb6 21.Bb2 Rf2 22.d4 Rxg2 23.Kxg2 Nc4 24.Bc3 Ne3+ 25.Kh1 Qxh3 26.Rg1 Nxc2 27.Bb2 Nxd4 28.Bxd4 Bxd4 29.Rg2 Be5 30.a4 Bxh2 31.Rxh2 Qxg4 32.b5 Qxa4 0-1

Superpippo (1678) - raffa (1406)
FICS rated blitz game, 2002
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kf8 5.Bxg8 Rxg8 6.d4 exd4 7.c3 Qf6 8.cxd4 Nxd4 9.Nxd4 Bxd4 10.0-0 d6 11.Nc3 Bxc3 12.bxc3 Qxc3 13.Bg5 g6 14.Rc1 Qe5 15.f4 Qxe4 16.Re1 Qf5 17.Rxc7 Rg7 18.Qxd6+ 1-0

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c) 4...Ke7

33 games, 1999-2011,
Black scores badly (29%).
Elo-Ø: 1287, 31 games. Performance = Elo 1125
played by: agno, 1607, 0/1; MRKumar, 1602, 0/1; AAlekhine, 1601, 1/2; Brown, 1552, 1/1; Bucephale, 1528, 0/1

You should play: 5.Nxe5

Nesseerd (1111) - nontheist (1291)
FICS server game, rated blitz match, 2009
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Ke7 5.Nxe5 Nxe5 6.Bd5 c6 7.Qh5 Ng6 8.Qe5+ Nxe5 0-1

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Opening Report (Part 2)


I decided to have ChessBase8 give me an Opening Report on the Jerome Gambit, based on The Database. I got a whole lot of information, and I was only dealing with the first few moves...


Opening report

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+

9062 games in 'TheDatabase'


4. Moves and Plans

a) 4...Kxf7

8794 games, 1874-2012, 
Black scores well (57%).
Elo-Ø: 1394, 7469 games. Performance = Elo 1392
played by: Shredder 8, 3376, 3/3; YOUCANWIN, 3284, 2/2; Yace Paderborn, 3126, 2.5/3; Fritz 8, 3076, 8/11; Hiarcs 8, 3076, 5/6;

You should play: 5.Nxe5+

Shredder 8 (3374) - RevvedUp (2038)
blitz 2 12, 2006
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Ke6 7.f4 d6 8.fxe5 dxe5 9.Qe2 Nf6 10.Qc4+ Kd6 11.b4 Bb6 12.Nc3 Be6 13.Qe2 c6 14.Na4 Qe7 15.Nxb6 axb6 16.0-0 Rhf8 17.a3 Kc7 18.Bb2 Bg4 19.Qe3 h6 20.d4 exd4 21.Qg3+ Kd7 22.e5 Be2 23.exf6 Rxf6 24.Rfe1 Raf8 25.Bxd4 1-0


Shredder 8 (3377) - RevvedUp (2034)
blitz 2 12, 2006
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Ng6 7.Qd5+ Kf8 8.Qxc5+ d6 9.Qe3 Qh4 10.Nc3 c6 11.d3 Nf6 12.Qd4 Ke7 13.h3 Qh5 14.0-0 Qc5 15.Qa4 Re8 16.Be3 Qe5 17.f4 Qe6 18.f5 Qf7 19.fxg6 Qxg6 20.Rf3 h6 21.Raf1 Be6 22.Qb4 b6 23.e5 Nd5 24.Qxd6# 1-0

Shredder 8 (3377) - RevvedUp (2031)
blitz 2 12, 2006
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+ g6 7.Qxe5 d6 8.Qxh8 Qh4 9.0-0 Nf6 10.Qd8 Qxe4 11.Qxc7+ Qe7 12.Qxe7+ Kxe7 13.d3 Be6 14.Be3 Bxe3 15.fxe3 Rf8 16.e4 Ng4 17.Rxf8 Kxf8 18.Nc3 a6 19.Rf1+ Ke7 20.h3 Ne5 21.Kf2 h5 22.h4 Ng4+ 23.Ke2 Ne5 24.b4 Bg4+ 25.Ke3 Be6 26.b5 a5 27.Nd5+ Bxd5 28.exd5 1-0

Yace Paderborn (3124) - RevvedUp (2039)
blitz 2 12, 2006
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Ke6 7.f4 d6 8.fxe5 dxe5 9.Qh3+ Kd6 10.Qd3+ Ke7 11.Qg3 Kf7 12.Qxe5 Bd4 13.Rf1+ Nf6 14.Qh5+ Ke7 15.Qg5 Rg8 16.e5 h6 17.Qf4 Re8 18.exf6+ Kf7+ 19.Kd1 Bxf6 20.Nc3 Kg8 21.Ne4 Rf8 22.Rf3 Bd7 23.Nc5 Bc6 24.Ne6 Bxf3+ 25.gxf3 Qd6 26.Qxd6 cxd6 27.Nxf8 Rxf8 28.f4 g6 29.d3 h5 30.a4 a6 31.Ra3 Rf7 32.c4 Rd7 33.b3 d5 34.Kc2 Kf7 35.Be3 dxc4 36.bxc4 Ke6 37.Rb3 Bd4 38.Bxd4 Rxd4 39.Rb6+ Kf5 40.Rxb7 Rd6 41.Rf7+ Kg4 42.Kc3 Kh3 43.f5 gxf5 44.Rxf5 Rh6 45.Rf2 h4 46.d4 Kg4 47.c5 h3 48.d5 1-0

Yace Paderborn (3127) - RevvedUp (2032)
blitz 2 12, 2006
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+ g6 7.Qxe5 d6 8.Qxh8 Qh4 9.0-0 Bd7 10.d4 Bb6 11.Nd2 Re8 12.Nf3 Qh5 13.Ng5+ Kf8 14.Nxh7+ Kf7 15.Bd2 Nf6 16.Qxf6+ Kg8 17.Ng5 Rf8 18.Qe7 Bc8 19.Bc3 d5 20.exd5 Bf5 21.Bb4 Qh6 22.c3 c5 23.dxc6 Bd8 24.Qxf8+ Qxf8 25.Bxf8 Kxf8 26.cxb7 1-0

Fritz 8 (3074) - RevvedUp (2037)
blitz 2 12 2, 2006
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Nxe5+ Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Ke6 7.f4 d6 8.fxe5 dxe5 9.Rf1 Nf6 10.Qe2 Ke7 11.d3 Qd4 12.c3 Qd6 13.Nd2 Bg4 14.Rxf6 Bxe2 15.Rxd6 Bh5 16.Rd5 Bd6 17.Nc4 Bf7 18.Bg5+ Ke6 19.Rd1 h6 20.Bh4 Rhe8 21.Bg3 Kd7 22.Nxe5+ Rxe5 23.Rxe5 Bxe5 24.Bxe5 Bxa2 25.Bxg7 Rg8 26.Bxh6 Rxg2 27.Rd2 Rxd2 28.Kxd2 Bf7 29.d4 c6 30.Ke3 b5 31.b4 Ke6 32.h3 Kf6 33.Kf4 Bc4 34.Bf8 Be6 35.h4 a6 36.h5 Bc4 37.h6 Kg6 38.Ke5 Bd3 39.d5 cxd5 40.exd5 Kf7 41.Bc5 Bh7 42.d6 Ke8 43.Kf6 Bd3 44.Kg7 Kd7 45.h7 1-0

Main line:


5...Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Ng6 7.Qxc5 d6  45%, 
5...Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Ke6  54%, 
5...Nxe5 6.d4  49%, 

Critical line:
5...Nxe5 6.Qh5+ Kf8 7.Qxe5 Bd6 8.Qf5+ 22 % White. 

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